Human rights lawyer and United States Secretary of State Awardee on International Religious Freedom, Kola Alapinni, don warn people make dem no conclude say the result of the 2027 presidential election don already dey decided because of insecurity, vote buying or alleged influence over election arrangements.
Alapinni talk this while hin dey respond to report from The Economist about the factors wey fit affect the 2027 election.
The Economist don argue say President Bola Tinubu fit get advantage for the election because of the power of incumbency, division among opposition parties, religion, voter turnout and the level of political frustration among Nigerians.
But Alapinni disagree with the way the magazine interpret the situation, say prediction about election no be the same thing as final result.
He say political conditions wey exist now fit still change before Nigerians vote for 2027.
Alapinni particularly challenge the argument say opposition parties don divide, say e don automatically give Tinubu advantage.
He agree say if major opposition politicians fail to work together, e fit help the ruling party, but he say plenty time still dey for the political situation to change.
He also disagree with the idea say religion go automatically determine how people for the North and Middle Belt go vote.
According to am, insecurity, poverty and other problems fit play bigger role for how people decide who to support.
Alapinni also point to Plateau and Benue states, where insecurity and displacement don affect communities and farming activities.
He warn say apart from influencing who people vote for, insecurity fit also make some people find am difficult to reach polling units and take part fully for the election.
The lawyer further reject the idea say political frustration fit automatically make Nigerians stay away from voting.
He argue say people wey dey vex because of insecurity, hardship and poor public services fit use the election show their dissatisfaction with the government.
Alapinni also identify electricity as one of the issues wey fit influence voters for 2027.
He question the situation where dem spend money on power projects while many homes and businesses still dey depend on generators or struggle with poor electricity supply.
According to am, the real test for any government should be whether it can provide basic things Nigerians need, including reliable electricity.
However, Alapinni agree with some parts of The Economist’s argument.
He accept say incumbents normally get advantage because of political structures, money and stronger mobilisation, while opposition parties wey fail to unite may struggle to gather enough support.
He also agree say insecurity and vote buying fit affect the 2027 election.
But he warn say these risks should not be interpreted as proof that somebody don already write or decide the election result.
Alapinni say influence over election logistics and security agencies may be a genuine concern, but that alone no mean say the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, go manipulate the final result.
He conclude say President Tinubu’s incumbency remains an advantage, but Nigerians’ support should not be assumed because of that advantage.
According to am, the final result go depend largely on whether Nigerians are able to participate freely and use their votes.
Alapinni therefore maintain say nobody should behave as if the 2027 election don already get winner, because political situations can change before election day.
